The Cleveland Indians and Pittsburgh Pirates sporting +2500 odds to win the World Series may be as tempting as up and coming teams that both had some success last year. However, these bets are way too unpredictable. There are some things that we do know about baseball seasons as a whole.
We know that most every team, every year, will both win and lose 60 games and the final 60 games is where the finished record is decided. Outside of extreme rebuilding projects (ala Houston Astros the last few years) this 60-60-60 projection is very reliable. Taking this very simple projection, let's look at the Season Wins Over/Under odds for the upcoming 2015 season.
Arizona Diamondbacks - Under 72.5 - Can Arizona win an additional 13 games on top of their 60? I think that will be very difficult as they run out Josh Collmenter as the "ace" with his 86 mph heater along with Allen Webster and Ruby De La Rosa in that rotation. Their new 3B, Yasmany Tomas, while his swing is finger snap quick, he can't play 3B and will most likely give up as many runs defensively as he gains offensively. Between Mark Trumbo, Tomas, and Aaron Hill, the D-backs should have the worst defense in the league in one of the best hitter’s parks. That’s a recipe for disaster that even a healthy Goldschmidt can’t surmount (coming back from a broken hand).
Philadelphia Phillies - Over 68.5 – As terrible as Philadelphia may be this season, they do have some positive things that should let them go at least 9-51 out of those remaining 60 games. First, they will have Cole Hamels for at least half the season while his trade value increases. Second, they have Ben Revere catching everything in and around center for tremendous up the middle defense. Third, the back end of their bullpen with Phillipe Aumont, Ken Giles and Jonathan Papelbon should shorten games for them enough to compete in more games than one would think.
Toronto Blue Jays - Over 83.5 – A lot of people are on the Toronto bandwagon for their offseason moves. I’m usually one to temper my expectations at teams winning the offseason, but in the case of Toronto, it’s their homegrown pitching that makes me think they are a lock to go over .500 (81-81) by at least a few games. Veterans R.A. Dickey and Mark Buerhle will be eating innings and teaching the youngsters about tempo and location while Drew Hutchison, Aaron Sanchez and Daniel Norris are all strikeout artists with better stuff than most teams 1-3 starters. I don't discount Russel Martin's influence on these growing arms as well. This team is going to rack up strikeouts and the offense should have more than enough pop to keep them in the division title race. Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion and freshly acquired Josh Donaldson all hit the long ball while displaying a good eye to work opposing pitchers and Jose Reyes and Dalton Pompey should give both great defense behind their young rotation and cause havoc on the base paths with their speed.
Chicago Cubs - Under 82.5 – I have long called the Cubs the sad clown of baseball. Year in and year out, they have had one of the largest markets, fan bases, TV contracts and payrolls available to them, yet they consistently put mediocrity on the field. I have been fully supportive of the methods Theo Epstein has taken with this team, but it’s too early to give this team a record above .500. This team is going to be rolling out Jason Hammel, Kyle Hendricks and Travis Wood in each round of the rotation and as much as I love the upcoming pop of Soler, Bryant and Baez, they each will strike out a ton as they get familiar with the league. Give this team one more season to get those youngsters some more at-bats and maybe let them sign one more front line pitcher (Jordan Zimmerman?) and I’ll be comfortable giving them a record over .500.
