There probably should be an extra line on today’s games. “Brett Anderson or Brandon Morrow leaves their game with an injury. +110”
I kid, I kid. Really though, we are no coming up to the back end of everyone’s rotation. We get the question mark pitchers with injury history, the veteran workhorses that don’t have much stuff left in the tank, the would-be but never-was former prospects and the guys teams are just looking to eat some innings to not stretch their bullpens too thin.
That being said, like yesterday, I don’t really see any value lines on today’s games. I’d be tempted to take San Francisco vs San Diego Over 7 runs by the what I’ve seen left in Lincecum’s arm and Morrow’s history of short starts.
However, I will lay off all action today and watch the outcomes. I’m particularly interested in seeing the following:
What kind of action Derek Holland has in his arm this season.
If Nathan Eovaldi’s fastball still has no movement (therefore negating the high velocity)
Mike Fiers command
If Brett Anderson’s arm falls off
If Taijuan Walker can command the strike zone against a patient Oakland lineup.
If Brandon Morrow is at full strength
If the Twins lineup can score against the very mediocre Hector Noesi
Friday, April 10, 2015
Thursday, April 9, 2015
MLB Games (4/9/2015)
Today, I only see one line that I believe to be really enticing. Sometimes there will be days in the baseball schedule that just don’t have lines good enough to warrant the risk and today is one of those days. The good thing about days like this, especially early in the year, is you get to learn a lot watching independent of financial interest.
We will see Daniel Norris take the mound against the Yankees tonight and I’m very excited to see his stuff perform against a big league lineup. In that same game, we are going to learn what kind of life CC Sabathia has in that arm that’s been worked so hard over the years. Matt Harvey will take on a tough Nationals lineup and we can see if he overthrows that fastball. Trevor Bauer will take the hill against the Astros and we can see if his control issues are really a thing of the past (although you don’t want to judge that by the box score alone with the way Houston swings). I’ll be watching him with my own eyes. On the opposite side of that game, we will see Asher Wojciechowski pitch for the first time ever. Last, but not least, we can see if Kendal Graveman in Oakland is really the ground ball out making machine he has appeared to be as he advanced through the Toronto system before being flipped to Oakland this offseason.
But now, on to the one game where I see a value play...
Chicago White Sox vs Kansas City Royals (-1.5) – John Danks vs Edinson Volquez
John Danks has seen the Royals and Kauffman stadium his entire career. Obviously, lineups change over the years, but he has a very large sample size of data in both the stadium and the current lineup. Only one member of the Royals has hit over .214 against Danks (Eric Hosmer) in their career. Danks has also shut down the little power the Royals have. He’s only given up two home runs (one to Salvador Perez and one random shot to Omar Infante) against this lineup. I don’t see any reason to believe that his stuff has changed in any drastic way and I believe his trends should stay consistent and he will keep the White Sox in this game today.
Edinson Volquez will be making his first start for Kansas City today after signing his new 20 million dollar contract. He’s been living in the National League since 2008 and this will be his first time throwing in Kauffman Stadium since his rookie year of 2005, when he got a cup of coffee as a late call-up and only pitched 12 innings that season. His K/9 has decreased each year since 2011, so he’s pitching to more contact and last year he had a very low BABIP (.263). I believe that average will come up this season and what better time to start than today.
The White Sox will roll out a few lefties against the righty Volquez, but traditionally, there hasn’t been a significant split. The key today is that meat of the Chicago lineup has seen Volquez with some success. Adam Eaton, Melky Cabrera and Adam LaRoche have seen Volquez previously with Cabrera and LaRoche having some powerful success against him. Mix in them with a peppering of Jose Abreu and Avisail Garcia and the White Sox will get their first win of the season today by thumping Volquez while Danks neutralizes the Kansas City lineup.
The take – Chicago (Moneyline +120)
We will see Daniel Norris take the mound against the Yankees tonight and I’m very excited to see his stuff perform against a big league lineup. In that same game, we are going to learn what kind of life CC Sabathia has in that arm that’s been worked so hard over the years. Matt Harvey will take on a tough Nationals lineup and we can see if he overthrows that fastball. Trevor Bauer will take the hill against the Astros and we can see if his control issues are really a thing of the past (although you don’t want to judge that by the box score alone with the way Houston swings). I’ll be watching him with my own eyes. On the opposite side of that game, we will see Asher Wojciechowski pitch for the first time ever. Last, but not least, we can see if Kendal Graveman in Oakland is really the ground ball out making machine he has appeared to be as he advanced through the Toronto system before being flipped to Oakland this offseason.
But now, on to the one game where I see a value play...
Chicago White Sox vs Kansas City Royals (-1.5) – John Danks vs Edinson Volquez
John Danks has seen the Royals and Kauffman stadium his entire career. Obviously, lineups change over the years, but he has a very large sample size of data in both the stadium and the current lineup. Only one member of the Royals has hit over .214 against Danks (Eric Hosmer) in their career. Danks has also shut down the little power the Royals have. He’s only given up two home runs (one to Salvador Perez and one random shot to Omar Infante) against this lineup. I don’t see any reason to believe that his stuff has changed in any drastic way and I believe his trends should stay consistent and he will keep the White Sox in this game today.
Edinson Volquez will be making his first start for Kansas City today after signing his new 20 million dollar contract. He’s been living in the National League since 2008 and this will be his first time throwing in Kauffman Stadium since his rookie year of 2005, when he got a cup of coffee as a late call-up and only pitched 12 innings that season. His K/9 has decreased each year since 2011, so he’s pitching to more contact and last year he had a very low BABIP (.263). I believe that average will come up this season and what better time to start than today.
The White Sox will roll out a few lefties against the righty Volquez, but traditionally, there hasn’t been a significant split. The key today is that meat of the Chicago lineup has seen Volquez with some success. Adam Eaton, Melky Cabrera and Adam LaRoche have seen Volquez previously with Cabrera and LaRoche having some powerful success against him. Mix in them with a peppering of Jose Abreu and Avisail Garcia and the White Sox will get their first win of the season today by thumping Volquez while Danks neutralizes the Kansas City lineup.
The take – Chicago (Moneyline +120)
Wednesday, April 8, 2015
MLB Games (4/8/2015)
Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees (-1.5) R.A. Dickey vs Michael Pineda
It’s been quite some time since we’ve seen Michael Pineda on a consistent basis. The 13 games he started last year were the only starts he’s had over the last three seasons (2012, 2013, 2014). He faced Toronto in two of those games last year and had pretty good success. There isn’t much of a recent track record to predict Pineda, but while people are still mesmerized by his fastball, they forget that he’s a right hander that is prone to fly balls. We know how that worked out for Phil Hughes in New York vs Minnesota. I believe the same situation applies to Pineda from Seattle to New York.
The Toronto lineup is not toying around this year. Rolling out Jose Reyes and Russell Martin ahead of the thump of Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion and Josh Donaldson is a recipe for runs. Bautista went yard in both games Pineda pitched last year and a key point to think about in this game is both Bautista and Encarnacion have had success against the Yankees ace set-up man, Andrew Miller. Toronto should be able to thump a few over the fence in Yankee stadium against Pineda and can put some more runs across the plate against the bullpen.
On the other side, Dickey has a track record against the Yankee lineup. The bad thing for Toronto is that it’s not a good one when you break down the numbers. Dickey threw one game in Yankee stadium last year (6 IP 2 ER), but the Yankee lineup has seen Dickey a lot over the years. Jacoby Ellsbury, Brett Gardner and even Stephen Drew have had good success against Dickey. The factor that I think is key here, is that Dickey’s knuckler doesn’t keep control as well in the cold early in the season. April starts are his highest ERA with the worst K/BB ratio. The Yankees have seen him enough to know they can be patient with him here and jump on his fastball when the knuckler doesn’t dance.
The take – Over 7 runs (+105)
Cleveland Indians (-1.5) at Houston Astros – Carlos Carrasco vs Scott Feldman
This game seems pretty straight-forward and I have to agree with the masses on this one. The moneyline on this game is fairly low because of Scott Feldman’s previous success against Cleveland. Last year against Cleveland he shut them down (8 IP 1 ER). However, I consider that start a once time occurrence rather than a trend against this year’s Cleveland lineup. After getting shut down by Dallas Keuchel last night, Cleveland is going to be hungry and ready to pounce. Feldman doesn’t strike people out and walks a surprising amount of batters (last year in 180 IP: 107 K / 50 BB). If there is one thing we know about Terry Francona clubs, it’s that they are willing to be patient.
Carlos Carrasco on the opposing side, does strike people out. Not only does strike people out, but he does so at a tremendous clip, and if there is one thing that we know about the Houston lineup, it’s that they love to strikeout at a tremendous clip. That is a good combination for Cleveland tonight. I’ve been a believer in Carrasco’s talent since the minors, but random injuries and inconsistent control had hurt him early in his career. Last year he turned a corner and had an ERA of 1.72 with 86 K’s in 78 innings in the second half last year. Expect him to dominate the Houston lineup and for Cleveland to pound Feldman early.
To top things off, Carrasco happened to throw a two-hit shutout against Houston in Minute Maid Park last year including 12 strikeouts and 1 walk.
The take – Cleveland (Moneyline -130)
It’s been quite some time since we’ve seen Michael Pineda on a consistent basis. The 13 games he started last year were the only starts he’s had over the last three seasons (2012, 2013, 2014). He faced Toronto in two of those games last year and had pretty good success. There isn’t much of a recent track record to predict Pineda, but while people are still mesmerized by his fastball, they forget that he’s a right hander that is prone to fly balls. We know how that worked out for Phil Hughes in New York vs Minnesota. I believe the same situation applies to Pineda from Seattle to New York.
The Toronto lineup is not toying around this year. Rolling out Jose Reyes and Russell Martin ahead of the thump of Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion and Josh Donaldson is a recipe for runs. Bautista went yard in both games Pineda pitched last year and a key point to think about in this game is both Bautista and Encarnacion have had success against the Yankees ace set-up man, Andrew Miller. Toronto should be able to thump a few over the fence in Yankee stadium against Pineda and can put some more runs across the plate against the bullpen.
On the other side, Dickey has a track record against the Yankee lineup. The bad thing for Toronto is that it’s not a good one when you break down the numbers. Dickey threw one game in Yankee stadium last year (6 IP 2 ER), but the Yankee lineup has seen Dickey a lot over the years. Jacoby Ellsbury, Brett Gardner and even Stephen Drew have had good success against Dickey. The factor that I think is key here, is that Dickey’s knuckler doesn’t keep control as well in the cold early in the season. April starts are his highest ERA with the worst K/BB ratio. The Yankees have seen him enough to know they can be patient with him here and jump on his fastball when the knuckler doesn’t dance.
The take – Over 7 runs (+105)
Cleveland Indians (-1.5) at Houston Astros – Carlos Carrasco vs Scott Feldman
This game seems pretty straight-forward and I have to agree with the masses on this one. The moneyline on this game is fairly low because of Scott Feldman’s previous success against Cleveland. Last year against Cleveland he shut them down (8 IP 1 ER). However, I consider that start a once time occurrence rather than a trend against this year’s Cleveland lineup. After getting shut down by Dallas Keuchel last night, Cleveland is going to be hungry and ready to pounce. Feldman doesn’t strike people out and walks a surprising amount of batters (last year in 180 IP: 107 K / 50 BB). If there is one thing we know about Terry Francona clubs, it’s that they are willing to be patient.
Carlos Carrasco on the opposing side, does strike people out. Not only does strike people out, but he does so at a tremendous clip, and if there is one thing that we know about the Houston lineup, it’s that they love to strikeout at a tremendous clip. That is a good combination for Cleveland tonight. I’ve been a believer in Carrasco’s talent since the minors, but random injuries and inconsistent control had hurt him early in his career. Last year he turned a corner and had an ERA of 1.72 with 86 K’s in 78 innings in the second half last year. Expect him to dominate the Houston lineup and for Cleveland to pound Feldman early.
To top things off, Carrasco happened to throw a two-hit shutout against Houston in Minute Maid Park last year including 12 strikeouts and 1 walk.
The take – Cleveland (Moneyline -130)
Tuesday, April 7, 2015
MLB Games (4/7/2015)
Baltimore at Tampa Bay (-1.5) Wei-Yin Chen vs Nathan Karns
The Orioles and Rays don't have lineups that will blow you away. Alejandro De Aza is a sneaky effective lead off man half the time and proved his worth in the team's opening game yesterday. Manny Machado and Adam Jones should be the core of this lineup in the second and third slot, but the lineup falls apart at that point. Baltimore rolls out Steve Pearce, once heralded prospect Travis Snider, and the has-been, rumored... ahem… "socialite", Delmon Young. This is not the same lineup without suspended Chris Davis, and jettisoned Nick Markakis and Nelson Cruz. However, today, they will be facing something called Nathan Karns.
Karns has started a total of five games in his career, giving up eight home runs in those games. He even had one start in Tropicana Field, where he gave up six runs in five innings including three home runs. The Rays have long been known to make the best out of their staff, but these are not the same coaches and not the same staff. I fully expect the b-squad Orioles to pound on Mr. Karns today.
The problem is that Baltimore rolls out Wei-Yin Chen, and while that may seem like a strength, Chen has been a slow starter having many more rough outings in April and May than he does the rest of the season. Combine his slow starts with the Rays previous success against him and this game could be a shootout early. Desmond Jennings, James Loney and Evan Longoria all hit him well and Longo has already shown his power this year with a homer in the opener. Jennings should be back at the top of the lineup and Tampa will put up some runs.
The take – Over 7.5 runs (-110)
Texas at Oakland (-1.5) Colby Lewis vs Jesse Hahn
Lewis was one of those feel good stories that has since been forgotten. After some early career troubles, including a rotator cuff surgery, he went to Japan for two seasons to harness his chi and it seemed to have worked. When he returned to Texas he was a much more useful starter. Never dominating stuff, but a workhorse frame that will put up innings and keep his team in games. He has a four pitch mix to keep hitters off balance and appears to be fully recovered after missing all of 2013. He'll take the mound against he A's today.
Lewis has actually had very good success in Oakland throughout his career. The large area is a good combination with his fly ball tendencies. Between 2011-2012 (before his missed 2013 campaign) he pitched 33 innings with an ERA under 2.50 and a 27-5 K/BB rate. The only two hitters on the current Oakland roster with success against Lewis are both on the DL (Crisp and Reddick).
Jesse Hahn has only 12 total starts in his career with about a 2/1 K/BB rate. He's a fastball/curveball guy that will occasionally mix in a change-up. Billy Beane has always had a good eye to spot pitchers from other squads that he can use more effectively. It's possible that Hahn falls into that category as well, but without the track record and his quality of stuff lacking power, I'm not willing to bet on it. I reserve that respect for journeymen that have earned their dues getting hitters out over years with location and intelligent set-ups.
Texas was shut down last night. Hitless for 8 innings against Sonny Gray. I expect the Texas lineup to come back with a fury tonight against the lesser talented Jesse Hahn. Prince Fielder, Adrian Beltre and Shin-Soo Choo have not seen Hahn previously, but they are veterans that know how to setup young pitchers. Especially those with a two-pitch mix that tops out at 90 mph.
The take – Texas (Moneyline +140)
The Orioles and Rays don't have lineups that will blow you away. Alejandro De Aza is a sneaky effective lead off man half the time and proved his worth in the team's opening game yesterday. Manny Machado and Adam Jones should be the core of this lineup in the second and third slot, but the lineup falls apart at that point. Baltimore rolls out Steve Pearce, once heralded prospect Travis Snider, and the has-been, rumored... ahem… "socialite", Delmon Young. This is not the same lineup without suspended Chris Davis, and jettisoned Nick Markakis and Nelson Cruz. However, today, they will be facing something called Nathan Karns.
Karns has started a total of five games in his career, giving up eight home runs in those games. He even had one start in Tropicana Field, where he gave up six runs in five innings including three home runs. The Rays have long been known to make the best out of their staff, but these are not the same coaches and not the same staff. I fully expect the b-squad Orioles to pound on Mr. Karns today.
The problem is that Baltimore rolls out Wei-Yin Chen, and while that may seem like a strength, Chen has been a slow starter having many more rough outings in April and May than he does the rest of the season. Combine his slow starts with the Rays previous success against him and this game could be a shootout early. Desmond Jennings, James Loney and Evan Longoria all hit him well and Longo has already shown his power this year with a homer in the opener. Jennings should be back at the top of the lineup and Tampa will put up some runs.
The take – Over 7.5 runs (-110)
Texas at Oakland (-1.5) Colby Lewis vs Jesse Hahn
Lewis was one of those feel good stories that has since been forgotten. After some early career troubles, including a rotator cuff surgery, he went to Japan for two seasons to harness his chi and it seemed to have worked. When he returned to Texas he was a much more useful starter. Never dominating stuff, but a workhorse frame that will put up innings and keep his team in games. He has a four pitch mix to keep hitters off balance and appears to be fully recovered after missing all of 2013. He'll take the mound against he A's today.
Lewis has actually had very good success in Oakland throughout his career. The large area is a good combination with his fly ball tendencies. Between 2011-2012 (before his missed 2013 campaign) he pitched 33 innings with an ERA under 2.50 and a 27-5 K/BB rate. The only two hitters on the current Oakland roster with success against Lewis are both on the DL (Crisp and Reddick).
Jesse Hahn has only 12 total starts in his career with about a 2/1 K/BB rate. He's a fastball/curveball guy that will occasionally mix in a change-up. Billy Beane has always had a good eye to spot pitchers from other squads that he can use more effectively. It's possible that Hahn falls into that category as well, but without the track record and his quality of stuff lacking power, I'm not willing to bet on it. I reserve that respect for journeymen that have earned their dues getting hitters out over years with location and intelligent set-ups.
Texas was shut down last night. Hitless for 8 innings against Sonny Gray. I expect the Texas lineup to come back with a fury tonight against the lesser talented Jesse Hahn. Prince Fielder, Adrian Beltre and Shin-Soo Choo have not seen Hahn previously, but they are veterans that know how to setup young pitchers. Especially those with a two-pitch mix that tops out at 90 mph.
The take – Texas (Moneyline +140)
Monday, April 6, 2015
MLB Opening Day Games (4/6/2015)
Each day I will put out my evaluations for the days games where I think there is value bets to be had. I never understood those evaluators/handicappers that would advertise all games with their picks. Each and every day, there are games where the value simply isn’t there. The Washington Nationals, by both the statistics and the eye test should destroy the Mets on opening day (Max Scherzer vs Bartolo Colon), but the odds are so heavy on the Nats, there isn’t a bet to make that is worth the investment. With that said, here are my picks for opening day. Play Ball!
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati (-1.5) Francisco Liriano vs Johnny Cueto
Great American Ballpark is a hitters palace, but not when Cueto is on the mound. He terrorized hitters to a .180 Batting Average and 1.71 ERA with a 143/25 K/BB ratio last year alone and his career numbers there are very similar. A few Pirates have had success against him, with only Andrew McCutcheon having a significant impact.
Liriano on the other hand, has dominated only Jay Bruce in the Reds lineup and could give up a handful of home runs. He is 0-4 with a 5.47 ERA and given up 5 home runs in that ballpark. I expect the Reds to come out aggressive with Billy Hamilton running the bases and Votto taking his time to wear down Liriano for the rest of the lineup.
The Reds are the favorite here, but Pittsburgh has enough backers to give pretty decent moneyline odds on Cincinnati. Take them.
The take – Cincinnati (Moneyline -120)
Atlanta at Miami (-1.5) Julio Teheran vs Henderson Alvarez
Miami is a darling underdog this year as people expect this lineup to mash. Rightfully so, when you roll out Christian Yelich, Giancarlo Stanton, and Marcell Ozuna as your starting OF alone. Atlanta is viewed as the complete opposite with nobody in that lineup besides Freddie Freeman. However, in this game on opening night, I anticipate a flood in both directions.
Teheran had a breakout year last year with an ERA under 3 in a full 33 start season (221 innings). While I do still like his ability long term, the young Marlins are no stranger to him and have numerous at bats against him with good success from both Yelich and Ozuna. The Marlins will put up a handful of runs on Teheran opening day. Now to the other half…
The Braves lineup, predicted by most to be just a hair above completely pathetic, actually sees the ball well out of Alvarez’s hand. Even the now ex-Brave, Melvin Upton Jr (formerly known as Bossman Junior or BJ), known for his awful approach, high strikeout rate, and erratic discipline even is 6/21 against Alvarez with a HR and 5 RBI. Both Chris Johnson and Freddie Freeman ping him for both power and average as well.
Atlanta may end up being a historically bad lineup, and they are trading away their squad indicating a clear rebuilding period, but on this day, they will put up some runs.
The take – Combined Over 7 Runs (-120)
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati (-1.5) Francisco Liriano vs Johnny Cueto
Great American Ballpark is a hitters palace, but not when Cueto is on the mound. He terrorized hitters to a .180 Batting Average and 1.71 ERA with a 143/25 K/BB ratio last year alone and his career numbers there are very similar. A few Pirates have had success against him, with only Andrew McCutcheon having a significant impact.
Liriano on the other hand, has dominated only Jay Bruce in the Reds lineup and could give up a handful of home runs. He is 0-4 with a 5.47 ERA and given up 5 home runs in that ballpark. I expect the Reds to come out aggressive with Billy Hamilton running the bases and Votto taking his time to wear down Liriano for the rest of the lineup.
The Reds are the favorite here, but Pittsburgh has enough backers to give pretty decent moneyline odds on Cincinnati. Take them.
The take – Cincinnati (Moneyline -120)
Atlanta at Miami (-1.5) Julio Teheran vs Henderson Alvarez
Miami is a darling underdog this year as people expect this lineup to mash. Rightfully so, when you roll out Christian Yelich, Giancarlo Stanton, and Marcell Ozuna as your starting OF alone. Atlanta is viewed as the complete opposite with nobody in that lineup besides Freddie Freeman. However, in this game on opening night, I anticipate a flood in both directions.
Teheran had a breakout year last year with an ERA under 3 in a full 33 start season (221 innings). While I do still like his ability long term, the young Marlins are no stranger to him and have numerous at bats against him with good success from both Yelich and Ozuna. The Marlins will put up a handful of runs on Teheran opening day. Now to the other half…
The Braves lineup, predicted by most to be just a hair above completely pathetic, actually sees the ball well out of Alvarez’s hand. Even the now ex-Brave, Melvin Upton Jr (formerly known as Bossman Junior or BJ), known for his awful approach, high strikeout rate, and erratic discipline even is 6/21 against Alvarez with a HR and 5 RBI. Both Chris Johnson and Freddie Freeman ping him for both power and average as well.
Atlanta may end up being a historically bad lineup, and they are trading away their squad indicating a clear rebuilding period, but on this day, they will put up some runs.
The take – Combined Over 7 Runs (-120)
Saturday, April 4, 2015
MLB Opening Night 2015 (4/5/2015)
Cardinals (-1.5) at Cubs - Adam Wainwright vs Jon Lester
Lester in his first start in Wrigley Field will no doubt be pumped up and we’ve seen how Lester reacts on the big stage (quite well). Wrigley in early April is not the hitter friendly park it is in the summer air and I expect Lester to pitch well Sunday night. However, there is a bit of history between him and some Cardinals hitters that doesn’t bode well for his success. Jason Heyward, Matt Holiday and Jhonny Peralta all have seen him throw a handful of times and have success against him, including 3 home runs and 5 walks.
Wainwright has a much larger sample size pitching in Wrigley (including the hitter’s palace it is on summer days) and has had pretty good success (3.18 ERA over the last 3 seasons). The Cubs don’t lack experience against the St. Louis ace, but their success against him has been lacking with the exception of Anthony Rizzo. He’s hit him to a clip of .333 (9/27 including a HR). Wainwright doesn’t walk many, and the Cubs strike out a lot on their own with poor plate discipline, against mediocre pitchers. Wainwright is far from mediocre. I expect Wainwright to give this game to his bullpen with a lead.
The St. Louis bullpen, with fireballer’s Jordan Walden and Trevor Rosenthal mixed with more finesse of Randy Choate and Sean Maness should keep the Cubs hitters off balance. The matchup to beware is if St. Louis veteran lefty Choate is brought in to face Rizzo in a close game. Rizzo is 3/10 against him with a HR and 5 RBI.
The take – St. Louis (Moneyline -110)
Lester in his first start in Wrigley Field will no doubt be pumped up and we’ve seen how Lester reacts on the big stage (quite well). Wrigley in early April is not the hitter friendly park it is in the summer air and I expect Lester to pitch well Sunday night. However, there is a bit of history between him and some Cardinals hitters that doesn’t bode well for his success. Jason Heyward, Matt Holiday and Jhonny Peralta all have seen him throw a handful of times and have success against him, including 3 home runs and 5 walks.
Wainwright has a much larger sample size pitching in Wrigley (including the hitter’s palace it is on summer days) and has had pretty good success (3.18 ERA over the last 3 seasons). The Cubs don’t lack experience against the St. Louis ace, but their success against him has been lacking with the exception of Anthony Rizzo. He’s hit him to a clip of .333 (9/27 including a HR). Wainwright doesn’t walk many, and the Cubs strike out a lot on their own with poor plate discipline, against mediocre pitchers. Wainwright is far from mediocre. I expect Wainwright to give this game to his bullpen with a lead.
The St. Louis bullpen, with fireballer’s Jordan Walden and Trevor Rosenthal mixed with more finesse of Randy Choate and Sean Maness should keep the Cubs hitters off balance. The matchup to beware is if St. Louis veteran lefty Choate is brought in to face Rizzo in a close game. Rizzo is 3/10 against him with a HR and 5 RBI.
The take – St. Louis (Moneyline -110)
Monday, March 30, 2015
Baseball Futures 2015
I am an odds man in the true sense of the word. My brain works in an odd and analytical fashion unlike most others I encounter. I always analyze a situation from all angles and weigh my decisions and can firmly separate this ability with my emotional decisions. I will say, I do not support long term bets on future post season success. It’s a bad beat to throw down money now for who will win the next Super Bowl or World Series.
The Cleveland Indians and Pittsburgh Pirates sporting +2500 odds to win the World Series may be as tempting as up and coming teams that both had some success last year. However, these bets are way too unpredictable. There are some things that we do know about baseball seasons as a whole.
We know that most every team, every year, will both win and lose 60 games and the final 60 games is where the finished record is decided. Outside of extreme rebuilding projects (ala Houston Astros the last few years) this 60-60-60 projection is very reliable. Taking this very simple projection, let's look at the Season Wins Over/Under odds for the upcoming 2015 season.
Arizona Diamondbacks - Under 72.5 - Can Arizona win an additional 13 games on top of their 60? I think that will be very difficult as they run out Josh Collmenter as the "ace" with his 86 mph heater along with Allen Webster and Ruby De La Rosa in that rotation. Their new 3B, Yasmany Tomas, while his swing is finger snap quick, he can't play 3B and will most likely give up as many runs defensively as he gains offensively. Between Mark Trumbo, Tomas, and Aaron Hill, the D-backs should have the worst defense in the league in one of the best hitter’s parks. That’s a recipe for disaster that even a healthy Goldschmidt can’t surmount (coming back from a broken hand).
Philadelphia Phillies - Over 68.5 – As terrible as Philadelphia may be this season, they do have some positive things that should let them go at least 9-51 out of those remaining 60 games. First, they will have Cole Hamels for at least half the season while his trade value increases. Second, they have Ben Revere catching everything in and around center for tremendous up the middle defense. Third, the back end of their bullpen with Phillipe Aumont, Ken Giles and Jonathan Papelbon should shorten games for them enough to compete in more games than one would think.
Toronto Blue Jays - Over 83.5 – A lot of people are on the Toronto bandwagon for their offseason moves. I’m usually one to temper my expectations at teams winning the offseason, but in the case of Toronto, it’s their homegrown pitching that makes me think they are a lock to go over .500 (81-81) by at least a few games. Veterans R.A. Dickey and Mark Buerhle will be eating innings and teaching the youngsters about tempo and location while Drew Hutchison, Aaron Sanchez and Daniel Norris are all strikeout artists with better stuff than most teams 1-3 starters. I don't discount Russel Martin's influence on these growing arms as well. This team is going to rack up strikeouts and the offense should have more than enough pop to keep them in the division title race. Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion and freshly acquired Josh Donaldson all hit the long ball while displaying a good eye to work opposing pitchers and Jose Reyes and Dalton Pompey should give both great defense behind their young rotation and cause havoc on the base paths with their speed.
Chicago Cubs - Under 82.5 – I have long called the Cubs the sad clown of baseball. Year in and year out, they have had one of the largest markets, fan bases, TV contracts and payrolls available to them, yet they consistently put mediocrity on the field. I have been fully supportive of the methods Theo Epstein has taken with this team, but it’s too early to give this team a record above .500. This team is going to be rolling out Jason Hammel, Kyle Hendricks and Travis Wood in each round of the rotation and as much as I love the upcoming pop of Soler, Bryant and Baez, they each will strike out a ton as they get familiar with the league. Give this team one more season to get those youngsters some more at-bats and maybe let them sign one more front line pitcher (Jordan Zimmerman?) and I’ll be comfortable giving them a record over .500.
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