Cardinals (-1.5) at Cubs - Adam Wainwright vs Jon Lester
Lester in his first start in Wrigley Field will no doubt be pumped up and we’ve seen how Lester reacts on the big stage (quite well). Wrigley in early April is not the hitter friendly park it is in the summer air and I expect Lester to pitch well Sunday night. However, there is a bit of history between him and some Cardinals hitters that doesn’t bode well for his success. Jason Heyward, Matt Holiday and Jhonny Peralta all have seen him throw a handful of times and have success against him, including 3 home runs and 5 walks.
Wainwright has a much larger sample size pitching in Wrigley (including the hitter’s palace it is on summer days) and has had pretty good success (3.18 ERA over the last 3 seasons). The Cubs don’t lack experience against the St. Louis ace, but their success against him has been lacking with the exception of Anthony Rizzo. He’s hit him to a clip of .333 (9/27 including a HR). Wainwright doesn’t walk many, and the Cubs strike out a lot on their own with poor plate discipline, against mediocre pitchers. Wainwright is far from mediocre. I expect Wainwright to give this game to his bullpen with a lead.
The St. Louis bullpen, with fireballer’s Jordan Walden and Trevor Rosenthal mixed with more finesse of Randy Choate and Sean Maness should keep the Cubs hitters off balance. The matchup to beware is if St. Louis veteran lefty Choate is brought in to face Rizzo in a close game. Rizzo is 3/10 against him with a HR and 5 RBI.
The take – St. Louis (Moneyline -110)
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