Each day I will put out my evaluations for the days games where I think there is value bets to be had. I never understood those evaluators/handicappers that would advertise all games with their picks. Each and every day, there are games where the value simply isn’t there. The Washington Nationals, by both the statistics and the eye test should destroy the Mets on opening day (Max Scherzer vs Bartolo Colon), but the odds are so heavy on the Nats, there isn’t a bet to make that is worth the investment. With that said, here are my picks for opening day. Play Ball!
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati (-1.5) Francisco Liriano vs Johnny Cueto
Great American Ballpark is a hitters palace, but not when Cueto is on the mound. He terrorized hitters to a .180 Batting Average and 1.71 ERA with a 143/25 K/BB ratio last year alone and his career numbers there are very similar. A few Pirates have had success against him, with only Andrew McCutcheon having a significant impact.
Liriano on the other hand, has dominated only Jay Bruce in the Reds lineup and could give up a handful of home runs. He is 0-4 with a 5.47 ERA and given up 5 home runs in that ballpark. I expect the Reds to come out aggressive with Billy Hamilton running the bases and Votto taking his time to wear down Liriano for the rest of the lineup.
The Reds are the favorite here, but Pittsburgh has enough backers to give pretty decent moneyline odds on Cincinnati. Take them.
The take – Cincinnati (Moneyline -120)
Atlanta at Miami (-1.5) Julio Teheran vs Henderson Alvarez
Miami is a darling underdog this year as people expect this lineup to mash. Rightfully so, when you roll out Christian Yelich, Giancarlo Stanton, and Marcell Ozuna as your starting OF alone. Atlanta is viewed as the complete opposite with nobody in that lineup besides Freddie Freeman. However, in this game on opening night, I anticipate a flood in both directions.
Teheran had a breakout year last year with an ERA under 3 in a full 33 start season (221 innings). While I do still like his ability long term, the young Marlins are no stranger to him and have numerous at bats against him with good success from both Yelich and Ozuna. The Marlins will put up a handful of runs on Teheran opening day. Now to the other half…
The Braves lineup, predicted by most to be just a hair above completely pathetic, actually sees the ball well out of Alvarez’s hand. Even the now ex-Brave, Melvin Upton Jr (formerly known as Bossman Junior or BJ), known for his awful approach, high strikeout rate, and erratic discipline even is 6/21 against Alvarez with a HR and 5 RBI. Both Chris Johnson and Freddie Freeman ping him for both power and average as well.
Atlanta may end up being a historically bad lineup, and they are trading away their squad indicating a clear rebuilding period, but on this day, they will put up some runs.
The take – Combined Over 7 Runs (-120)
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