Baltimore at Tampa Bay (-1.5) Wei-Yin Chen vs Nathan Karns
The Orioles and Rays don't have lineups that will blow you away. Alejandro De Aza is a sneaky effective lead off man half the time and proved his worth in the team's opening game yesterday. Manny Machado and Adam Jones should be the core of this lineup in the second and third slot, but the lineup falls apart at that point. Baltimore rolls out Steve Pearce, once heralded prospect Travis Snider, and the has-been, rumored... ahem… "socialite", Delmon Young. This is not the same lineup without suspended Chris Davis, and jettisoned Nick Markakis and Nelson Cruz. However, today, they will be facing something called Nathan Karns.
Karns has started a total of five games in his career, giving up eight home runs in those games. He even had one start in Tropicana Field, where he gave up six runs in five innings including three home runs. The Rays have long been known to make the best out of their staff, but these are not the same coaches and not the same staff. I fully expect the b-squad Orioles to pound on Mr. Karns today.
The problem is that Baltimore rolls out Wei-Yin Chen, and while that may seem like a strength, Chen has been a slow starter having many more rough outings in April and May than he does the rest of the season. Combine his slow starts with the Rays previous success against him and this game could be a shootout early. Desmond Jennings, James Loney and Evan Longoria all hit him well and Longo has already shown his power this year with a homer in the opener. Jennings should be back at the top of the lineup and Tampa will put up some runs.
The take – Over 7.5 runs (-110)
Texas at Oakland (-1.5) Colby Lewis vs Jesse Hahn
Lewis was one of those feel good stories that has since been forgotten. After some early career troubles, including a rotator cuff surgery, he went to Japan for two seasons to harness his chi and it seemed to have worked. When he returned to Texas he was a much more useful starter. Never dominating stuff, but a workhorse frame that will put up innings and keep his team in games. He has a four pitch mix to keep hitters off balance and appears to be fully recovered after missing all of 2013. He'll take the mound against he A's today.
Lewis has actually had very good success in Oakland throughout his career. The large area is a good combination with his fly ball tendencies. Between 2011-2012 (before his missed 2013 campaign) he pitched 33 innings with an ERA under 2.50 and a 27-5 K/BB rate. The only two hitters on the current Oakland roster with success against Lewis are both on the DL (Crisp and Reddick).
Jesse Hahn has only 12 total starts in his career with about a 2/1 K/BB rate. He's a fastball/curveball guy that will occasionally mix in a change-up. Billy Beane has always had a good eye to spot pitchers from other squads that he can use more effectively. It's possible that Hahn falls into that category as well, but without the track record and his quality of stuff lacking power, I'm not willing to bet on it. I reserve that respect for journeymen that have earned their dues getting hitters out over years with location and intelligent set-ups.
Texas was shut down last night. Hitless for 8 innings against Sonny Gray. I expect the Texas lineup to come back with a fury tonight against the lesser talented Jesse Hahn. Prince Fielder, Adrian Beltre and Shin-Soo Choo have not seen Hahn previously, but they are veterans that know how to setup young pitchers. Especially those with a two-pitch mix that tops out at 90 mph.
The take – Texas (Moneyline +140)
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