Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees (-1.5) R.A. Dickey vs Michael Pineda
It’s been quite some time since we’ve seen Michael Pineda on a consistent basis. The 13 games he started last year were the only starts he’s had over the last three seasons (2012, 2013, 2014). He faced Toronto in two of those games last year and had pretty good success. There isn’t much of a recent track record to predict Pineda, but while people are still mesmerized by his fastball, they forget that he’s a right hander that is prone to fly balls. We know how that worked out for Phil Hughes in New York vs Minnesota. I believe the same situation applies to Pineda from Seattle to New York.
The Toronto lineup is not toying around this year. Rolling out Jose Reyes and Russell Martin ahead of the thump of Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion and Josh Donaldson is a recipe for runs. Bautista went yard in both games Pineda pitched last year and a key point to think about in this game is both Bautista and Encarnacion have had success against the Yankees ace set-up man, Andrew Miller. Toronto should be able to thump a few over the fence in Yankee stadium against Pineda and can put some more runs across the plate against the bullpen.
On the other side, Dickey has a track record against the Yankee lineup. The bad thing for Toronto is that it’s not a good one when you break down the numbers. Dickey threw one game in Yankee stadium last year (6 IP 2 ER), but the Yankee lineup has seen Dickey a lot over the years. Jacoby Ellsbury, Brett Gardner and even Stephen Drew have had good success against Dickey. The factor that I think is key here, is that Dickey’s knuckler doesn’t keep control as well in the cold early in the season. April starts are his highest ERA with the worst K/BB ratio. The Yankees have seen him enough to know they can be patient with him here and jump on his fastball when the knuckler doesn’t dance.
The take – Over 7 runs (+105)
Cleveland Indians (-1.5) at Houston Astros – Carlos Carrasco vs Scott Feldman
This game seems pretty straight-forward and I have to agree with the masses on this one. The moneyline on this game is fairly low because of Scott Feldman’s previous success against Cleveland. Last year against Cleveland he shut them down (8 IP 1 ER). However, I consider that start a once time occurrence rather than a trend against this year’s Cleveland lineup. After getting shut down by Dallas Keuchel last night, Cleveland is going to be hungry and ready to pounce. Feldman doesn’t strike people out and walks a surprising amount of batters (last year in 180 IP: 107 K / 50 BB). If there is one thing we know about Terry Francona clubs, it’s that they are willing to be patient.
Carlos Carrasco on the opposing side, does strike people out. Not only does strike people out, but he does so at a tremendous clip, and if there is one thing that we know about the Houston lineup, it’s that they love to strikeout at a tremendous clip. That is a good combination for Cleveland tonight. I’ve been a believer in Carrasco’s talent since the minors, but random injuries and inconsistent control had hurt him early in his career. Last year he turned a corner and had an ERA of 1.72 with 86 K’s in 78 innings in the second half last year. Expect him to dominate the Houston lineup and for Cleveland to pound Feldman early.
To top things off, Carrasco happened to throw a two-hit shutout against Houston in Minute Maid Park last year including 12 strikeouts and 1 walk.
The take – Cleveland (Moneyline -130)
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